# 2022 Redistricting for the House of Representatives Electoral Districts in Hokkaido Prefecture

## Redistricting Requirements

We incorporate as best as possible the rules that the Council on the House of Representatives Electoral Districts (hereafter “the commission”) follows by taking into account the following rules and practices:

1. The Act for Establishment of the Council on the House of Representatives Electoral Districts;
2. The guidelines adopted by the commission in the 2022 redistricting cycle; and
3. Other practices that the commission follows.

### 1. Act for Establishment of the Council on the House of Representatives Electoral Districts
According to the Act for Establishment of the Council on the House of Representatives Electoral Districts,

* The population ratio between the most populous and least populous districts in the country must not exceed two; and 
* “Circumstances such as administrative boundaries, geographical features, and transportation [routes]” must be taken into account.

### 2. Redistricting commission’s guidelines
According to the commission’s guidelines adopted in the 2022 redistricting cycle, known as the [policy for creating redistricting plans](https://www.soumu.go.jp/main_content/000794997.pdf),

* Districts must be contiguous;
* Municipalities must not be split in principle;
* Groups of towns and villages known as counties (*gun*) should not be split wherever possible; and 
* Natural and social conditions should be taken into account comprehensively

* Note that for Hokkaido, the guidelines stipulate that the boundaries of 振興局 (shinkokyoku) must be respected.

### 3. Redistricting commission’s practices
We follow the commission’s practices through:

* Only allowing municipalities to be split based on the boundaries of old municipalities that existed before 1999, wherever possible; and 
* Avoiding splitting municipalities into more than two districts. 

## Algorithmic Constraints

* We enforce a maximum population deviation of 33%.
* We add a constraint that penalizes municipality splits as well as a constraint that penalizes the splitting of municipalities into more than two districts.
* We also add a constraint to encourage the creation of geographically compact districts.

## Pre-processing Notes

* We connect the islands of 檜山振興局奥尻町 (Okujiri-cho, Hiyama-shinkyokyku), 宗谷振興局礼文町 (Rebun-cho, Soya-shinkokyoku), 宗谷振興局利尻町 (Rishiri-cho, Soya-shinkokyoku), and 宗谷振興局利尻富士町 (Rishirifuji-cho, Soya-shinkokyoku) to their closest municipality within the respective 振興局.

## Simulation Notes

* We sample 80,000 districting plans across 4 independent runs of the Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) algorithm.
* We do not allow municipalities to be split except for those that were split in the 2017 or 2022 map: 札幌市北区 (Kita-ku, Sapporo-shi), 札幌市西区 (Nishi-ku, Sapporo-shi), and 札幌市白石区 (Shiroishi-ku, Sapporo-shi). We allow these municipalities to be split along the boundaries of Census tracts. 
* In addition, we do not allow 振興局 to be split except for those that were split in the 2017 map: 石狩振興局 (Ishikari-shinkokyoku). We allow this 振興局 to be split along the boundaries of municipalities.
* We set the population temperance at 0.05 to avoid bottlenecks.
* Finally, we remove plans with discontiguous districts as well as plans that split municipalities into three or more districts, after which we thin the sample to down to 5,000 plans.

## Data Sources

- [2020 Census](https://www.e-stat.go.jp/stat-search/files?page=1&toukei=00200521&tstat=000001136464&cycle=0&tclass1=000001136472)
- [2000 Census](https://www.e-stat.go.jp/gis/statmap-search?page=1&type=2&aggregateUnitForBoundary=A&toukeiCode=00200521&toukeiYear=2000&serveyId=A002005212000&coordsys=1&format=shape&datum=2000)
- [Periodical Ferry Route: National Geographic Information Download Service](https://nlftp.mlit.go.jp/ksj/gml/datalist/KsjTmplt-N09.html)
- [Lake and Ponds: National Geographic Information Download Service](https://nlftp.mlit.go.jp/ksj/gml/datalist/KsjTmplt-W09-v2_2.html)
- [Vote record of the House of Councilors election of July 21st 2019](https://www.soumu.go.jp/senkyo/senkyo_s/data/sangiin25/index.html)
- [Vote record of the House of Councilors election of July 10th 2022](https://www.soumu.go.jp/senkyo/senkyo_s/data/sangiin26/index.html)
